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FLASH 12: PREPARATIONS FOR NEXT WAR: SOMALIA (12/19/01; updated 1/24/02)

[Update 1/14/02: I strongly recommend the following article on Somalia in 1993 and now, in the 1/12/02 issue of the London Independent. The story notes how before 1993 the American-backed "Siad Barre had leased nearly two-thirds of Somalia to four huge American oil companies: Conoco, Chevron, Phillips, and Amoco ....In 1991, unfortunately for the oil giants, Siad Barre was overthrown, and he fled the country. Somalia -- as a functioning nation state with which they could do business -- fell apart. The oil giants' exclusive concessions to explore and drill were worthless in the absence of a viable government to enforce their claims."

It also gives the original story reported by Mark Bowden, author of the book Black Hawk Down which is now a movie: "American troops became confused. Shortly after, they were surrounded by angry crowds. In the massacre that followed, between 500 and 1,000 Somalis, many of them women, children, and old people, were killed. Eighteen Americans also died." And it notes how in the movie the facts of the massacre are replaced by "lashings of extraordinary heroism in the face of blah, blah, blah."]

[Update, 1/7/02: Newsweek (1/14/02) reports concern of Hassan Abshir Farah, prime minister of Somalia's Transitional National Government, that a military US intervention, possibly egged on by Ethiopian propaganda, could disrupt Somalia's recent and difficulty negotiated peace.

The Guardian (London, 12/20/01) earlier reported that Ethiopia-backed warlords have encouraged US intervention in Somalia by warning of an al-Qaeda presence there, which other observers doubt. Their aim is to frustrate a local peace process and resume the Ethiopian-Somali war with US backing: "Although the civil war has settled into a stalemate the warlords pulled out of peace talks in Nairobi on Friday, apparently in the expectation of US support."]

[Update 1/10/02: According to the Sunday Times (London) of 11/28/01, Kenya has also warned of the crisis in Somalia, and has not hesitated to use the familar drug card: "President Daniel arap Moi of Kenya warned that the continuing civil war in Somalia was turning his northeastern neighbour into "an international crime syndicate ranging from drug barons and religious extremists to international fugitives".

(The usual drug mentioned in connection with Somalia is the light stimulant khat or "Somalia tea." Khat reportedly delivers a buzz "no stronger than drinking a double espresso or a couple of cans of Coke." A Somalia community activist has said that "In Somalia, khat has been a normal part of life for centuries and is very prevalent in virtually every household." Yet recently the USG has stepped up prohibition of khat as "a mood-altering amphtamine...with the U.S. Customs Service reporting a 46 percent increase nationwide in khat confiscation last year. More than 70,000 pounds were seized in 2000, compared with 48,000 in 1999" [Atlanta Constitution, 11/28/01].)]

According to The Observer (London), December 9, 2001,

"American forces have already flown surveillance flights over Somalia looking for al-Qaeda forces to target in the next stage of the global war on terror, The Observer has learnt.

"Navy pilots have flown waves of missions to map two al-Qaeda camps near the Kenyan border with a view to launching air strikes, Pentagon sources said. US warships have positioned themselves off the coast near the capital, Mogadishu, to stop Osama bin Laden from hiding there, and to prepare for an attack if necessary."

San Francisco Chronicle, 12/16/01:

Thousands of American deaths later, the United States looks set to return to Somalia, in part to settle accounts. Identifying Somalia as a terrorist base for bin Laden's al Qaeda and other extremist organizations, U.S. reconnaissance planes last week reportedly began surveying targets from the sky, while military and CIA agents contacted potential allies both inside Somalia and in neighboring Ethiopia.

U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said the purpose of the visits was to "observe, survey possible escape routes, possible sanctuaries" for members of the al Qaeda terrorist network who may attempt to flee Afghanistan.

In addition, senior U.S. and British officials met last week with Kenyan President Daniel arap Moi amid speculation that Kenya would be used as a staging ground for attacks on Somalia.

London Times, 12/12/01:

Somalia is worried, with good reason. President Bush has sent a warship to patrol its coastal waters. He has frozen the foreign assets of its biggest bank [al-Barakaat] and yesterday we learnt that US military personnel were on the ground in this, the saddest corner of Africa, for the first time since 1993.

Is this where the war on terror goes next? If so, it will be partly because of alleged ties between the al-Qaeda network and Somalia's impenetrable web of rival clans and warlords -- but only partly. It will also be an unprecedented exercise in preventative geopolitical medicine.

Jane's Special Reports, 1/4/02, also predicted that Somalia might be the "next front" in Bush's "war on terror:"

"The word in Mogadishu is that some of Al-Qaeda's Somali fighters involved in the war in Afghanistan have returned home.

"A source in Nairobi told JIAA that most had escaped through Pakistan and were routed back to Africa on flights out of the Gulf states. The source also said a group of over a dozen Somalis shipped out of Mombasa for Mogadishu in an Omani-owned dhow.

"Enquiries in Somalia have yielded nothing, although the Somali police announced on 20 December that four Iraqi Kurds and a Palestinian thought to have links to Osama bin Laden had been arrested."

(This is the total of the publicly available report. It leaves us wondering if Jane's expects Bush to invade a country on the grounds that a few al-Qaeda fighters are rumored to have gone there.)

The US reconnaissance activity in Somalia was also reported by AP on 1/3/02.

news.com.au, 12/19/01:

ELITE Australian troops have been earmarked for operations to destroy terrorist cells in Somalia and Yemen.

Somalia and Oil

Back on January 18, 1993, the Los Angeles Times published a story under the headline, "THE OIL FACTOR IN SOMALIA: FOUR AMERICAN PETROLEUM GIANTS HAD AGREEMENTS WITH THE AFRICAN NATION BEFORE ITS CIVIL WAR BEGAN. THEY COULD REAP BIG REWARDS IF PEACE IS RESTORED."

The story continued: "According to documents obtained by The Times, nearly two-thirds of Somalia was allocated to the American oil giants Conoco, Amoco, Chevron and Phillips in the final years before Somalia's pro-U.S. President Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown and the nation plunged into chaos in January, 1991. Industry sources said the companies holding the rights to the most promising concessions are hoping that the Bush Administration's decision to send U.S. troops to safeguard aid shipments to Somalia will also help protect their multimillion-dollar investments there."

For a critical assessment of the US invasion of 1993 in the light of US oil interests, and also of the Pentagon-assisted propaganda movie "Black Hawk Down," see Larry Chin's essay in the Online Journal (1/3/02).

There is a good background article of 1/17/02 on Somalia by Stephen Zunes. It does not however mention oil.